Altering The Transition From Acute to Chronic Pain (ATTAC-Pain)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painchronicopioidinjuryscore
  Phrases that lowered it: allergicvisitthe investigatorhealthpatients who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 99981 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mechanistic Study of Duloxetine in Breast Cancer Patients With Chronic Pain NCT01912612 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Mechanism Based Proof of Concept Study of the Effects of Duloxetine in the Treatment of Patients With Osteoarthritic Knee Pain NCT04224584 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Treating Negative Affect in Low Back Pain Patients NCT04747314 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• A Study of Duloxetine (LY248686) in Participants With Chronic Osteoarthritis and Knee Pain in Japan NCT02248480 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• An Open Label Extension Study of Duloxetine (LY248686) in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01914666 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.