A Phase III Study of TACI-antibody Fusion Protein Injection (RC18) in Subjects With Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-04-03, after 2018-01-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartlifetumormyocardial
Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningperiodclinicalthe study -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Tocilizumab vs Azathioprine in Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders NCT03350633 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Ublituximab for Acute Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO) Relapses NCT02276963 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Controlled Trial of Eculizumab in AQP4 Antibody-positive Participants With NMO (PREVENT Study) NCT01892345 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- An Open Label Study of the Effects of Eculizumab in Neuromyelitis Optica NCT00904826 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Clinical Trial of BAT4406F Injection in Patients With Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders NCT04146285 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.