The Safety and Efficacy Of Rivaroxaban and Ticagrelor for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientspatienttherapyheartreceiving
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsindexopendisorderefficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25342 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Edoxaban Treatment Versus Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT02866175 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Dual Therapy With Dabigatran vs. Triple Therapy With Warfarin in Patients With AF That Undergo a PCI With Stenting (REDUAL-PCI) NCT02164864 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Quitting Versus Using Aspirin Therapy In Patients Treated With Oral Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation or Other Indication With Stabilized Coronary Artery Disease NCT04217447 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Study Exploring Two Strategies of Rivaroxaban (JNJ39039039; BAY-59-7939) and One of Oral Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Undergo Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT01830543 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Pilot Efficacy of Oral Factor Xa Inhibitor Betrixaban Compared to Warfarin NCT00742859 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.