Assessment of Quitting Versus Using Aspirin Therapy In Patients Treated With Oral Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation or Other Indication With Stabilized Coronary Artery Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypatientsrecurrentstabledisease
  Phrases that lowered it: long termasthmaoraladministrationdiabetes
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 506036 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 53675 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Edoxaban on Platelet Aggregation NCT05122455 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Edoxaban Treatment Versus Vitamin K Antagonist in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT02866175 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Loading With the P2Y12 Inhibitor Ticagrelor or Clopidogrel to Halt Ischemic Events in Patients Undergoing Elective Coronary Stenting NCT02617290 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy Of Rivaroxaban and Ticagrelor for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention NCT03331484 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Tailoring Of Platelet Inhibition to Avoid Stent Thrombosis NCT00914368 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.