Pre-Operative Trial (PGHA vs. PGH) for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-04-30, after 2017-12-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: limited tonot limitedsyndromeincluding butsubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineallergicparticipantsnasalthe study -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 100462 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19350 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 100462 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19350 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- avelumab, gemcitabine, hydroxychloroquine, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Seven Trial: Exploiting the Unfolded Protein Response NCT06076837 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Study Evaluating NEOadjuvant Immunotherapy in Resectable PANCreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT03979066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Study of Combination Therapy With the MEK Inhibitor, Cobimetinib, Immune Checkpoint Blockade, Atezolizumab, and the AUTOphagy Inhibitor, Hydroxychloroquine in KRAS-mutated Advanced Malignancies NCT04214418 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Study of Nab-Paclitaxel and Gemcitabine and Plus/Minus VCN-01 in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT05673811 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- QUILT-3.080: NANT Pancreatic Cancer Vaccine NCT03586869 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.