Study of Nab-Paclitaxel and Gemcitabine and Plus/Minus VCN-01 in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchroniceligiblehepatitisbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: femalemaleopen labelpatientsline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 121697 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pre-Operative Trial (PGHA vs. PGH) for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT03344172 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Gemcitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel vs Gemcitabine, Nab-Paclitaxel, Durvalumab and Tremelimumab as 1st Line Therapy in Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT02879318 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Trial of YL-13027 in Combination With Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel in Patients With Refractory Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT06199466 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• The Seven Trial: Exploiting the Unfolded Protein Response NCT06076837 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Nab-paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine in Chinese Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02017015 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.