Clinical Trial With Riluzole in Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 2 (ATRIL)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-14, after 2018-01-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindonsetcontrolledrandomized double
Phrases that lowered it: patientsdrugdiagnosedthe studyexamination -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 631 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 631 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 151 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 424 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 122 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- riluzole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Riluzole in Hereditary Cerebellar Ataxia NCT01104649 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Phase II/III Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of Arimoclomol in SOD1 Positive Familial Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT00706147 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Study of Rasagiline in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT01879241 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Lithium Carbonate in Patients With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 3 NCT01096082 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study for SAR443820 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT05237284 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.