Safety and Efficacy of Lithium Carbonate in Patients With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 3
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-01-31, after 2011-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 32
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5615 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 839 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lithium carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Tolerability of Lithium in Spinocerebellar Ataxia 2 (SCA2) NCT00998634 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Lithium Treatment for Patients With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type I NCT00683943 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Multi-Center Controlled Screening Trial of Safety and Efficacy of Lithium Carbonate in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT00790582 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Trial of Lithium in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy or Corticobasal Degeneration NCT00703677 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Dual Treatment With Lithium and Valproate in ALS. NCT03204500 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.