Lithium Treatment for Patients With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type I
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-02-25, after 2008-05-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: psoriasistypesymptomschildrenlithium
Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitwomenbloodindividuals -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3199 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 84 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3199 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 835 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lithium carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy of Lithium Carbonate in Patients With Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 3 NCT01096082 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of Lithium in Spinocerebellar Ataxia 2 (SCA2) NCT00998634 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Trial of Lithium in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy or Corticobasal Degeneration NCT00703677 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- A Multi-Center Controlled Screening Trial of Safety and Efficacy of Lithium Carbonate in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT00790582 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Psychosis and Agitation in Alzheimer's Disease NCT02129348 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.