Study to Evaluate the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of IDCT, a Treatment for Symptomatic Lumbar Intervertebral Disc Degeneration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects within subjectsthe subjectcellspurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: painpatients whoclinicalsafetyefficacy
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of IDCT, a Treatment for Symptomatic Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT03955315 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Effectiveness of Single Administration Intradiscal rhGDF-5 for the Treatment of Early Stage Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT01182337 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Effectiveness of Single Administration Intradiscal rhGDF-5 for the Treatment of Early Stage Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT01158924 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo Controlled, Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Effectiveness of 2 Doses of Intradiscal rhGDF-5 (Single Administration) for the Treatment of Early Stage Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT01124006 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Intradiscal rhGDF-5 Phase I/II Clinical Trial NCT00813813 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.