Pembrolizumab Plus Epacadostat, Pembrolizumab Monotherapy, and the EXTREME Regimen in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (KEYNOTE-669/ECHO-304)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 47.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomametastaticcellsquamoushead
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 138896 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21874 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) or Placebo With Chemoradiation in Participants With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-412/KEYNOTE-412) NCT03040999 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• BEMPEG With Pembrolizumab vs Pembrolizumab Alone in Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent HNSCC (PROPEL-36) NCT04969861 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Study of MK-3475 (Pembrolizumab) in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Treatment With Platinum-based and Cetuximab Therapy (MK-3475-055/KEYNOTE-055) NCT02255097 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) for First Line Treatment of Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck (MK-3475-048/KEYNOTE-048) NCT02358031 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Standard Treatment for Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer (MK-3475-040/KEYNOTE-040) NCT02252042 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.