DEC-205/NY-ESO-1 Fusion Protein CDX-1401, Poly ICLC, Decitabine, and Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiamdsamltransplantsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: participantvaccineparticipantsblood pressureprotein
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 141 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45848 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12572 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DEC-205/NY-ESO-1 Fusion Protein CDX-1401and Decitabine in Treating Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome or Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01834248 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab and Azacitidine With or Without Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Refractory/Relapsed or Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02397720 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study of Idarubicin, Cytarabine, and Nivolumab in Patients With High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) and Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT02464657 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in AML in Remission at High Risk for Relapse NCT02532231 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Testing Nivolumab in Combination With Decitabine and Venetoclax in Patients With Newly Diagnosed TP53 Gene Mutated Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04277442 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.