Early Phase Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of AZD9567 Versus Prednisolone in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: activediseaserandomizationdiagnosisweeks
  Phrases that lowered it: allergyvisitstudy todrugsthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past trials: 1481 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Proof of Concept and Dose Ranging Study in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00713544 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study of ARRY-438162 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00650767 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Study of ARRY-371797 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00729209 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are on a Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease-Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) and Have an Inadequate Response to csDMARDs NCT02720523 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Continue ASP015K Treatment to Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients Who Completed Phase IIb Study or Phase III Study of ASP015K NCT01638013 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.