Cetuximab & Nivolumab in Patients With Recurrent/Metastatic Head & Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapysquamouscelland neckhead and
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmmhgwithin weeksmganti
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11677 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 38584 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cetuximab Plus Dalpicilib in Patients With HPV Negative, PD-1 Resistant R/M HNSCC NCT05721443 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Subjects With Head and Neck Cancer Unable for Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy (NIVOTAX) NCT04282109 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab Combined With Cetuximab for Treatment of Recurrent/Metastatic Head & Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03082534 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Trial of Ibrutinib Combined With Nivolumab or Cetuximab to Treat Recurrent/Metastatic HNSCC NCT03646461 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Ficlatuzumab w/wo Cetuximab in Patients w/Cetuximab-Resistant, Recurrent or Metastatic Head/Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03422536 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.