Study With an Autologous Dermo-epidermal Skin Substitute for the Treatment of Full-Thickness Skin Defects in Adults and Children

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-08-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicchildrenhcvbreastage
  Phrases that lowered it: patientspatientskinulnphase ii
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study With an Autologous Dermo-epidermal Skin Substitute for the Treatment of Burns in Adults and Adolescents NCT03227146 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study for Autologous Dermal Substitutes and Dermo-epidermal Skin Substitutes for Treatment of Skin Defects NCT02145130 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Controlled Comparison of a Traditional Dressing Versus a Biologic Dressing Composed of Fetal Fibroblasts and Keratinocytes in Association With a Collagen Matrix on Skin Donor Sites NCT03334656 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Oleogel-S10 in Wound Healing of Split-Thickness Skin Graft Donor Sites (BSG-12) NCT01807650 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• TWB-103 for Adult Patients With Split-Thickness Skin Graft Donor Site Wounds NCT02737748 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.