A Sub-study of BMS-986036 in Subjects With Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bonebmslineblind placeboskin
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsscreeningpharmacokineticevaluate theto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 486 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of BMS-986036 in Subjects With Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT02413372 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Drug Levels of BMS-963272 in Participants With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT04766476 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Effectiveness of BMS-986263 in Adults With Compensated Cirrhosis (Liver Disease) From Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT04267393 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986036 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Stage 3 Liver Fibrosis NCT03486899 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986036 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Liver Cirrhosis NCT03486912 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.