Osimertinib for NSCLC With EGFR Exon 20 Insertion Mutation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-03, after 2018-01-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapymutationmetastaticplatinumprior
Phrases that lowered it: 20chronicweeksingleprovision of -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 200 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 38.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 430 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 430 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 200 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1797 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1071 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 38.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- osimertinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Molecular Profiling Study of Patients With EGFR Mutation-positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC Treated With Osimertinib NCT03239340 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Osimertinib (AZD9291) in First-line Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC Patients With EGFR and EGFR T790M NCT02841579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- A Study Osimertinib in Patients With Stage 4 Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With Uncommon EGFR Mutations NCT03434418 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Advanced Lung Tumor Treated by Osimertinib Plus Anlotinib NCT04770688 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Osimertinib Plus Chemotherapy vs Osimertinib in EGFRm NSCLC With Persistence Week-3 ctDNA EGFRm After 1L Osimertinib NCT04769388 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.