Osimertinib Plus Chemotherapy vs Osimertinib in EGFRm NSCLC With Persistence Week-3 ctDNA EGFRm After 1L Osimertinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticbowelradiationdiseasereceiving
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetythe efficacysafety ofdiseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Osimertinib for NSCLC With EGFR Exon 20 Insertion Mutation NCT03414814 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study Osimertinib in Patients With Stage 4 Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With Uncommon EGFR Mutations NCT03434418 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Molecular Profiling Study of Patients With EGFR Mutation-positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC Treated With Osimertinib NCT03239340 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib (AZD9291) in First-line Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC Patients With EGFR and EGFR T790M NCT02841579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Exploring the Theragnostic Value of Osimertinib in EGFR-mutated Lung Cancer (THEROS) NCT03810066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.