An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of Nivolumab With Standard of Care Therapy vs Standard of Care Therapy for First-Line Treatment of Colorectal Cancer That Has Spread

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 34% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancercolorectalstandardchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelevaluaterelevantan openmedical history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 613 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 167672 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study Of Nivolumab In Combination With Trametinib With Or Without Ipilimumab In Participants With Previously Treated Cancer of the Colon or Rectum That Has Spread NCT03377361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-813160 in Combination With Chemotherapy or Nivolumab in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03184870 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986253 in Combination With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab in Advanced Cancers NCT03400332 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of BMS-986205 Given in Combination With Nivolumab and in Combination With Both Nivolumab and Ipilimumab in Cancers That Are Advanced or Have Spread NCT02658890 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of NIS793 and Other Novel Investigational Combinations With SOC Anti-cancer Therapy for the 2L Treatment of mCRC NCT04952753 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.