Evaluation of ALX-0171 in Japanese Children Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-10-24, after 2018-03-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: oxygencarerandomizationventilationmechanical
Phrases that lowered it: screeningkgnasalecgtract -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 2 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0.08 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 2 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 20 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose Ranging Study of ALX-0171 in Infants Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection NCT02979431 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate Orally Administered ALS-008176 in Adults Hospitalized With a Respiratory Syncytial Virus NCT02673476 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Viral Inhibition in Children for Treatment of RSV NCT02654171 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of Presatovir in Hospitalized Adults With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection NCT02135614 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study of AK0529 in Chinese Infants Hospitalized With RSV NCT04231968 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.