Dose Ranging Study of ALX-0171 in Infants Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartoxygenconcurrentsaturation
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyrespiratoryevaluate theto evaluatekg
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 2 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of ALX-0171 in Japanese Children Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection NCT03418571 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate Orally Administered ALS-008176 in Adults Hospitalized With a Respiratory Syncytial Virus NCT02673476 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Viral Inhibition in Children for Treatment of RSV NCT02654171 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Multicentre Study in Otherwise Healthy Infants and Toddlers Hospitalised For and Diagnosed With RSV Lower Respiratory Tract Infection to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Clinical Activity of ALX-0171 NCT02309320 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of Presatovir in Hospitalized Adults With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection NCT02135614 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.