A Multicentre Study in Otherwise Healthy Infants and Toddlers Hospitalised For and Diagnosed With RSV Lower Respiratory Tract Infection to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Clinical Activity of ALX-0171

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hastolerabilitysubject isthe safetyprotocol
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyopen labelinvestigatetractvirus
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 1.92 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Ranging Study of ALX-0171 in Infants Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection NCT02979431 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Study of ALS-008176 in Infants Hospitalized With RSV NCT02202356 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• ALX-0171 Phase I Study, Evaluating Single Ascending Dose and Multiple Dose in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT01483911 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of AK0529 in Infants Hospitalized With RSV NCT02460016 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of ALX-0171 in Japanese Children Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection NCT03418571 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.