A Study of ALS-008176 in Infants Hospitalized With RSV
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-02-15, after 2014-07-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tolerability pharmacokineticssafety tolerabilitythe safetyascendingmultiple
Phrases that lowered it: virusrespiratoryeffect ofsinglemale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 1 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Multicentre Study in Otherwise Healthy Infants and Toddlers Hospitalised For and Diagnosed With RSV Lower Respiratory Tract Infection to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Clinical Activity of ALX-0171 NCT02309320 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of AK0529 in Infants Hospitalized With RSV NCT02460016 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate ALS-008176 in the Virus Challenge Model NCT02094365 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Study of AK0529 in Chinese Infants Hospitalized With RSV NCT04231968 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Dose Ranging Study of ALX-0171 in Infants Hospitalized for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection NCT02979431 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.