A Randomized, Controlled, Multi-center, Phase III Clinical Study to Investigate Recombinant Humanized PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody Injection (JS001) Versus Dacarbazine as the 1st-line Therapy for Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomawomenmetastatictherapyto administration
  Phrases that lowered it: 109ulnto investigatebloodalt
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2750 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Comparing the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Efficacy of RPH-075 and Keytruda® in Patients With Malignant Neoplasms NCT06307093 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study сomparing the Efficacy and Safety of RPH-075 and Keytruda® in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic Skin Melanoma NCT06320353 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• CMP-001 in Combination With Nivolumab in Subjects With Advanced Melanoma NCT04698187 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Denosumab + PD-1 in Subjects With Stage III/ IV Melanoma NCT03620019 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon NCT02112032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.