Combination of Chemoradiation With Immunotherapy in Inoperable œsophageal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-10-07, after 2019-01-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerher2failuretumorsyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: first dosetrialwith typetype diabetesaccording -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 38 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 26.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 17 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 47187 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14807 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PDL-1 Targeting in Resectable Oesophageal Cancer NCT03087864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Concurrent Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemoimmunotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT07015489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab, Radiotherapy, and Chemotherapy in Neoadjuvant Treatment of Malignant Esophago-gastric Diseases (PROCEED) NCT03064490 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- HPV-16 Vaccination and Pembrolizumab Plus Cisplatin for Intermediate Risk HPV-16-associated Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04369937 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Reirradiation With Pembrolizumab in Locoregional Inoperable Recurrence or Second Primary Squamous Cell CA of the Head and Neck NCT02289209 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.