PhII Trial Panitumumab, Nivolumab, Ipilimumab in Kras/Nras/BRAF Wild-type MSS Refractory mCRC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycancermetastaticchemotherapyprior
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvhepatitis virusdisorderhbvliver
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14123 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Regorafenib, Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Chemotherapy Resistant Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04362839 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Cetuximab in Third Line for Mutant APC, TP53 and RAS Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04853043 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Safety and Activity of PolyPEPI1018 Plus Atezolizumab in Colorectal Cancer. NCT05243862 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Overcoming Primary Resistance to Immunotherapy in Metastatic Melanoma NCT05304546 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.