Regorafenib, Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Chemotherapy Resistant Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsmetastaticstablediseasetumor
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantbodypsoriasisdays before
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Regorafenib and Nivolumab in Mismatch Repair (MMR) Refractory Colorectal Cancer NCT03712943 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• PhII Trial Panitumumab, Nivolumab, Ipilimumab in Kras/Nras/BRAF Wild-type MSS Refractory mCRC NCT03442569 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Trial of Ulixertinib in Combination With Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal (GI) Malignancies NCT05221320 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Study of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab After Radiation for Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Progressing on Chemotherapy NCT03007407 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.