Letermovir Versus Valganciclovir to Prevent Human Cytomegalovirus Disease in Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationkidneytransplantdonortime of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe efficacymoderateand safetyefficacy and
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1219 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12655 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MK-8228 (Letermovir) in the Prevention of Human Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection and Disease in Adult Japanese Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-042) NCT04129398 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Letermovir (MK-8228) Versus Placebo in the Prevention of Clinically-Significant Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection in Adult, CMV-Seropositive Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-001) NCT02137772 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Brincidofovir Versus Valganciclovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus NCT02439957 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Maribavir Compared to Valganciclovir to Treat Cytomegalovirus Infections in People Who Have Received Stem Cell Transplants NCT02927067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Maribavir Treatment Compared to Investigator-assigned Treatment in Transplant Recipients With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infections That Are Refractory or Resistant to Treatment With Ganciclovir, Valganciclovir, Foscarnet, or Cidofovir NCT02931539 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.