Letermovir (MK-8228) Versus Placebo in the Prevention of Clinically-Significant Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection in Adult, CMV-Seropositive Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-001)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-11-21, after 2014-06-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1025 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationtime ofplacebothe timetransplant
Phrases that lowered it: hcvdays beforestemlymphomaadult -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1025 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 140 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- letermovir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Letermovir Versus Valganciclovir to Prevent Human Cytomegalovirus Disease in Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-002) NCT03443869 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- MK-8228 (Letermovir) in the Prevention of Human Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection and Disease in Adult Japanese Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-042) NCT04129398 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Study of Letermovir (MK-8228) to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety for Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Infection in Chinese Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-045) NCT05763823 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- A Study of Maribavir Compared to Valganciclovir to Treat Cytomegalovirus Infections in People Who Have Received Stem Cell Transplants NCT02927067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Drug Letermovir (LTV) as Prevention for Recurrent of Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection NCT04017962 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.