A Study of the Drug Letermovir (LTV) as Prevention for Recurrent of Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltherapyenrollmentpriordonor
  Phrases that lowered it: dosesclinically significantdailytwicekg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 535 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Letermovir Treatment in Pediatric Participants Following Allogeneic Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) (MK-8228-030) NCT03940586 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Extension of Letermovir (LET) From Day 100 to Day 200 Post-transplant for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) Participants (MK-8228-040) NCT03930615 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Letermovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Reactivation in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Treated With Alemtuzumab NCT04312841 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of Maribavir Compared to Valganciclovir to Treat Cytomegalovirus Infections in People Who Have Received Stem Cell Transplants NCT02927067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Letermovir Versus Valganciclovir to Prevent Human Cytomegalovirus Disease in Kidney Transplant Recipients (MK-8228-002) NCT03443869 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.