Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, Cilofexor, and Combinations in Participants With Bridging Fibrosis or Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyironplaceboto assessassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateparticipantslaboratoryulnmedical history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 66 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 360 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Bridging (F3) Fibrosis NCT03053050 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib in Adults With Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03053063 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GS-0976 in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT02856555 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study of Semaglutide, and Cilofexor/Firsocostat, Alone and in Combination, in Adults With Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT04971785 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GS-4997 Alone or in Combination With Simtuzumab (SIM) in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) and Fibrosis Stages F2-F3 NCT02466516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.