Study of Semaglutide, and Cilofexor/Firsocostat, Alone and in Combination, in Adults With Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 468 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: greater thanpriorscreeningstablekey
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvparticipantsdiabeteslivercombination
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AURORA: A Study for the Efficacy and Safety of Cenicriviroc (CVC) for the Treatment of Liver Fibrosis in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03028740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, Cilofexor, and Combinations in Participants With Bridging Fibrosis or Compensated Cirrhosis Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT03449446 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Selonsertib, Firsocostat, and Cilofexor in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT02781584 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Research Study on Whether a Combination of 2 Medicines (NNC0194 0499 and Semaglutide) Works in People With Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT05016882 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-blind Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of EDP-305 in Subjects With Liver-biopsy Proven NASH NCT04378010 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.