A Dose Optimisation Study of ASLAN003 in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiachemotherapyacutepriorstandard
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whothe efficacysafety ofaciddiagnosed
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study for AC220 to Treat Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT00989261 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Idasanutlin in Combination With Cytarabine and Daunorubicin in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and the Safety and Efficacy of Idasanutlin in the Maintenance of First AML Complete Remission NCT03850535 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• A Study of DSP-2033 (Alvocidib) in Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT03563560 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of AKN-028 in Patients With Acute Myelogenous Leukemia NCT01573247 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• AEG35156 in Combination With High-dose Cytarabine and Idarubicin in AML Following Failure of a Single Standard Dose Cytarabine Based Frontline Induction Regimen NCT01018069 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.