Gemcitabine + Carboplatin + Nivolumab Versus Gemcitabine + Oxaliplatin + Nivolumab in Cisplatin-ineligible Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 35% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticsubjectssubjectcancerlocally
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withinvestigatormgaminotransferaseurinary
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 75% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26961 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 115975 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Atezolizumab Combined With Split-dose Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin in Urothelial Carcinoma NCT04602078 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Study of NIVOLUMAB/IPILIMUMAB Maintenance in Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT05219435 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Trial of Anti-PD-1 (Nivolumab) in Bladder Cancer Patients Recently Treated With Intravesical BCG Immunotherapy NCT03106610 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab in Combination With Gemcitabine Therapy in Cis-eligible/Ineligible UC Subjects NCT02365766 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Trilaciclib, a CDK 4/6 Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Bladder Cancer Receiving Chemotherapy Then Avelumab NCT04887831 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.