Trilaciclib, a CDK 4/6 Inhibitor, in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Bladder Cancer Receiving Chemotherapy Then Avelumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagetransplantationrandomizationtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantsparticipantdrugscontain
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18405 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 161287 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab and Combination Chemotherapy Before Surgery for the Treatment of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT04383743 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• CV301 Combined With PD-1/L1 Blockade in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Bladder Cancer NCT03628716 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Testing the PD-1 Inhibitor Pembrolizumab as Maintenance Therapy After Initial Chemotherapy in Metastatic Bladder Cancer NCT02500121 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study of Zalifrelimab and Balstilimab for Treatment of Participants With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Solid Tumors, and Expansion Into Select Solid Tumors (Cervical) NCT03495882 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Avelumab as Single Agent in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Urothelial Cancer in Patients Unfit for Cisplatin. The ARIES Study NCT03891238 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.