G1T48, an Oral SERD, Alone and in Combination With Palbociclib in ER-Positive, HER2-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatic breastadvanceder
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelpharmacokineticspatientscriteria foran open
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of GDC-0810 Single Agent or in Combination With Palbociclib and/or a Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone (LHRH) Agonist in Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT01823835 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study To Assess The Tolerability And Clinical Activity Of Gedatolisib In Combination With Palbociclib/Letrozole Or Palbociclib/Fulvestrant In Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02684032 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Giredestrant Plus Palbociclib Compared With Anastrozole Plus Palbociclib for Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive and HER2-Negative Untreated Early Breast Cancer (coopERA Breast Cancer) NCT04436744 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study of GDC-0927 in Postmenopausal Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT02316509 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Activity of GDC-0587 as a Monotherapy and in Combination With Giredestrant in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor-Positive and Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative (ER+/HER2-) Breast Cancer NCT07214662 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.