A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Activity of GDC-0587 as a Monotherapy and in Combination With Giredestrant in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor-Positive and Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative (ER+/HER2-) Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticlocallyadvancedpriortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsdrugparticipantshormoneendocrine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 386 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21566 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 464969 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of GDC-0810 Single Agent or in Combination With Palbociclib and/or a Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone (LHRH) Agonist in Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT01823835 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• G1T48, an Oral SERD, Alone and in Combination With Palbociclib in ER-Positive, HER2-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03455270 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• To Reverse ENDocrine Resistance Trial - PD 0332991 Monotherapy vs PD 0332991 in Combination With the Endocrine Therapy NCT02549430 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Study To Assess The Tolerability And Clinical Activity Of Gedatolisib In Combination With Palbociclib/Letrozole Or Palbociclib/Fulvestrant In Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02684032 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• BGB-43395 Alone or as Part of Combination Therapies in Chinese Participants With HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer and Other Advanced Solid Tumors NCT06253195 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.