BGB-43395 Alone or as Part of Combination Therapies in Chinese Participants With HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer and Other Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastaticlocallydisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspharmacokineticspharmacodynamicsevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Activity of GDC-0587 as a Monotherapy and in Combination With Giredestrant in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor-Positive and Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative (ER+/HER2-) Breast Cancer NCT07214662 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• AZD9833 China PK Study NCT04818632 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study Of Oral Palbociclib (PD-0332991), A CDK4/6 Inhibitor, As Single Agent In Japanese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors Or In Combination With Letrozole For The First-Line Treatment Of Postmenopausal Japanese Patients With ER (+) HER2 (-) Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01684215 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of BGB-290 in the Treatment of Metastatic HER2-Negative Breast Cancer Patients With BRCA Mutation in China NCT03575065 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Ribociclib in Pre- and Postmenopausal Chinese Women With HR Positive, HER2-negative, Advanced Breast Cancer. NCT03671330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.