Efficacy and Safety of Ribociclib in Pre- and Postmenopausal Chinese Women With HR Positive, HER2-negative, Advanced Breast Cancer.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: advancedrandomizationcancermetastatictherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerpharmacokineticpatients whoopen labeladult
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1145 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45656 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LEE011 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01958021 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of 2 Ribociclib Doses in Combination With Aromatase Inhibitors in Women With HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03822468 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Ribociclib (LEE011) in Combination With Letrozole for the Treatment of Men and Pre/Postmenopausal Women With HR+ HER2- aBC NCT02941926 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Combination of Ribociclib Plus Goserelin Acetate With Hormonal Therapy Versus Combination Chemotherapy in Premenopausal or Perimenopausal Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03839823 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Study of the Molecular Features of Postmenopausal Women With HR+ HER2-negative aBC on First-line Treatment With Ribociclib and Letrozole and, in Patients With a PIK3CA Mutation, on Second-line Treatment With Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant NCT03439046 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.