Study of 2 Ribociclib Doses in Combination With Aromatase Inhibitors in Women With HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2patientheartsafety and
  Phrases that lowered it: protocol definedmay applyother protocoldefined inclusionevaluate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 162 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10150 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1233 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 54059 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Adjuvant Ribociclib With Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor+/HER2- High Risk Early Breast Cancer NCT03078751 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Ribociclib in Pre- and Postmenopausal Chinese Women With HR Positive, HER2-negative, Advanced Breast Cancer. NCT03671330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LEE011 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01958021 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LEE011 in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer. NCT02422615 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Combination of Ribociclib Plus Goserelin Acetate With Hormonal Therapy Versus Combination Chemotherapy in Premenopausal or Perimenopausal Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03839823 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.