Multi-centre Study of HTL0018318 in Patients as an add-on to Standard-of-care

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdiseasecognitivesubjects withevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmulticenterpatientsparallel
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• SUVN-502 With Donepezil and Memantine for the Treatment of Moderate Alzheimer's Disease- Phase 2a Study NCT02580305 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 3 Doses of S47445 Versus Placebo in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease at Mild to Moderate Stages With Depressive Symptoms NCT02626572 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Clinical Safety/Tolerability and Exploratory Efficacy of EHT 0202 as Adjunctive Therapy to Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitor in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00880412 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Ladostigil in Mild to Moderate Probable Alzheimer's Disease NCT01354691 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of T3D-959 in Mild-to-moderate AD Subjects NCT04251182 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.