Efficacy and Safety of 3 Doses of S47445 Versus Placebo in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease at Mild to Moderate Stages With Depressive Symptoms

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeraddementiadiseaseplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: patientstypeand safetymoderatedrug
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Different Doses of SAR110894 on Cognition in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Donepezil NCT01266525 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• SUVN-502 With Donepezil and Memantine for the Treatment of Moderate Alzheimer's Disease- Phase 2a Study NCT02580305 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO4602522 in Participants With Moderate Severity Alzheimer Disease on Background Alzheimer Disease Therapy NCT01677754 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Bridging Study With GSK239512 In Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00675090 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Donepezil Hydrochloride 23 mg Treatment With Continuation of Donepezil Hydrochloride 10 mg Treatment in Japanese Subjects With Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT01539031 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.