Effect of Different Doses of SAR110894 on Cognition in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Donepezil

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 544 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimermoderatepatientplacebodisease
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofpharmacokineticvisit55 years
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single and Repeated Dosing Study to Assess the Safety and the Concentration-time Profile of SAR228810 in Alzheimer's Patients NCT01485302 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 3 Doses of S47445 Versus Placebo in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease at Mild to Moderate Stages With Depressive Symptoms NCT02626572 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Tolerability of ASP0777 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Taking a Stable Dose of Donepezil NCT01406145 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Bridging Study With GSK239512 In Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00675090 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Effect on Cognitive Performance and Safety/Tolerability of SSR180711C in Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT00602680 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.