A Study of the Safety and Tolerability of ASP0777 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Taking a Stable Dose of Donepezil

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-11-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersubject hasdementiastabledonepezil
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholsmokingclinical studyof drugscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 281 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Different Doses of SAR110894 on Cognition in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Donepezil NCT01266525 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of SB-742457, Added to Donepezil for the Treatment of Mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00710684 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of PQ912 in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02389413 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01549834 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate DNL747 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03757325 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.