Study to Evaluate DNL747 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradsubjects within subjectsscore
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpharmacokineticsevaluatepharmacodynamicswomen
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Optimal Dose Escalation Strategy to Successful Achievement of High Dose Donepezil 23mg NCT02550665 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Donepezil Hydrochloride 23 mg Treatment With Continuation of Donepezil Hydrochloride 10 mg Treatment in Japanese Subjects With Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT01539031 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of NDX-1017 NCT03298672 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of AL002 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT04592874 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Tolerability of ASP0777 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Taking a Stable Dose of Donepezil NCT01406145 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.