Targeted Delivery of Chemotherapy With Ultrasound and Microbublles

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapymetastasescolorectalkidney
  Phrases that lowered it: interactionbibioavailabilitypatient withcombination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ultrasound-enhanced Delivery of Chemotherapy to Patients With Liver Metastasis From Breast- and Colorectal Cancer NCT03477019 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Treating Liver Cancer With Drug-Eluting Beads NCT01336985 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• Intra-arterial Hepatic Beads Loaded With Irinotecan With Concomitant Chemotherapy With FOLFOX in Patients With Colorectal Cancer With Unresectable Liver Metastases: a Phase II Multicenter Study NCT01839877 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Drug-Eluting Bead, Irinotecan (DEBIRI) Therapy of Liver Metastasis From Colon Cancer With Systemic Fluorouracil, Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin and Bevacizumab NCT00932438 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Chemoembolization, Irinotecan Bead, Second Line Chemotherapy Treatment of Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00816777 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.