Blood Pressure Lowering in Dialysis (BOLD) Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-06, after 2018-03-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: undergoingdonorpressure andunitgreater than
Phrases that lowered it: patientsstagemeasurablemmhgtrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 644 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 644 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 171 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Genes, Fibrinolysis and Endothelial Dysfunction- Dialysis Aim 3 NCT00878969 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
- Angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) Inhibitors in Hemodialysis NCT00985322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Study of the Effect of Intradialytic Vasopressin on Chronic Hypertension in Patients With End Stage Renal Disease NCT01247090 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Trial of Twice-weekly Versus Thrice-weekly Hemodialysis in Patients With Incident End-stage Kidney Disease NCT03740048 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Two phosphAte taRGets in End-stage Renal Disease Trial (TARGET) NCT01994733 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.