Bonipar for Acute and Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-09-22, after 2020-12-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectpainsolutionchronickidney disease
Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andwith historyallergies tocriteria patientsulcer -
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 93185 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 93185 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17541 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 68.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- diclofenac
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Capsaicin + Diclofenac Gel in Acute Back Pain or Neck Pain NCT02700815 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Ketoprofen 10% Cream for Treatment of Pain Associated With Mild to Moderate Acute Soft Tissue Injury NCT00765700 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Low Dose of Cannabidiol (CBD) to Treat Mild to Moderate Musculoskeletal Pain NCT04193631 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Nonivamide/Nicoboxil Ointment in Acute Low Back Pain NCT01708915 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- An Efficacy and Safety Study of Acetaminophen Plus Tramadol Hydrochloride (JNS013) in Participants With Chronic Pain NCT00736853 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.