Study to Evaluate the Respiratory Safety of Lemborexant in Adult and Elderly Healthy Subjects and Adult and Elderly Subjects With Mild Obstructive Sleep Apnea

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disordercellsleepto determinecarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsparticipantasthmasingle
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 90 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Lemborexant in Subjects 55 Years and Older With Insomnia Disorder (SUNRISE 1) NCT02783729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Respiratory Safety of Lemborexant in Adult and Elderly Participants With Moderate to Severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea, and in Adult and Elderly Participants With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT04647383 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacodynamics of Lemborexant in Korean Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT05594589 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Crossover Study to Evaluate the Effect of Lemborexant Versus Placebo and Zolpidem on Postural Stability, Auditory Awakening Threshold, and Cognitive Performance in Healthy Subjects 55 Years and Older NCT03008447 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lemborexant in Chinese Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT04549168 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.