Daratumumab in Treating Transplant-Eligible Patients With Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientradiationcelltransplantheart
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplebonepatients whoreceivedmyeloma
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 150301 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 245 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Carfilzomib in Combination With Daratumumab, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Transplant-ineligible NDMM Patients NCT04065789 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Daratumumab, VELCADE (Bortezomib), Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone (D-VRd) With VELCADE, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone (VRd) in Participants With Untreated Multiple Myeloma and for Whom Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant is Not Planned as Initial Therapy NCT03652064 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Monoclonal Antibody-Based Sequential Therapy for Deep Remission in Multiple Myeloma NCT03224507 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Dexamethasone, Elotuzumab, and Pomalidomide in Treating Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03713294 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab (Anti-Programmed Death-Ligand 1 [PD-L1] Antibody) Alone or in Combination With an Immunomodulatory Drug and/or Daratumumab in Participants With Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT02431208 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.